S&P 500: 0.08% DOW: 0.34% NASDAQ: -0.45% 10-YR Yield: 4.15%
What Happened?
US indices had another choppy week with US indices delivering mixed performance results. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones posting slight gains with the NASDAQ, while slightly recovered from an early slump, posted modest losses thanks to being heavily favored of tech stocks. Strong corporate earnings continued to offer support, but market sentiment was hampered by softening labor data, selective earnings disappointments, and lingering effects from the recent government shutdown.
The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.10% this week, as investors worried about stubborn inflation and uncertainty about when, or if, the Federal Reserve would continue to cut rates. This rise in yields, along with quieter credit markets and a steepening of the yield curve, shows that investors are preparing for slower economic growth and more market ups and downs as they react to shifting signals from both the economy and policymakers.
September Jobs Report to Come Thursday After Government Reopened
- The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has come to an end after 43 days.
- After reopening, government workers will be compensated retroactively for the time they would have been working.
The key takeaway – This Wednesday, President Trump approved a funding package from the House of Representatives that reopens the federal government after the longest shutdown in U.S. history. While most public attention has centered on partisan disagreements, the critical development for markets is the return of official economic data. For weeks, investors have been operating in a partial information blackout, with key releases, including the long-delayed September labor report and the soon-to-follow October data, stuck in limbo.
Although private-sector firms attempted to fill the gap with their own labor and economic estimates, these substitutes varied widely and often failed to align with historical government benchmarks, adding uncertainty to market pricing. With federal agencies now resuming operations, investors will finally regain access to standardized, reliable data needed to reassess trends in employment, wages, and overall economic momentum. In a market environment already marked by volatility, this restored visibility is essential for informed decision-making.
Stock Investors are Buoying the Economy
- University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slid 6% in November
- Near all-time lows
- Investors are counting on the higher end of the K continuing to fare well, and spending part of their discretionary income
The key takeaway – Consumer sentiment has continued to slip, now sitting at a three-year low following the recent government shutdown. While conditions are tightening across the broader economy, the “K-shaped” dynamic is still on full display. Households with the largest stock holdings are more upbeat, reporting an 11% improvement in sentiment thanks to rising markets. As long as this top tier feels confident, they’ve continued to spend.
The key question now is what happens as more post-shutdown economic data comes in, especially around the labor market. Investors are still relying on higher-income consumers to stay resilient, but the market rally has largely masked the growing pressures facing lower-income households. Even before the latest jobs report was put on hold, signs of labor market softening were already emerging. If that trend deepens, leaning on the upper half of the “K” to support the economy will become much more difficult.
Trump Cuts Food Tariffs
- President Trump issued an order last night reducing tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas
- The aim is to lower the cost on groceries as the administration faces pressure from voters
The key takeaway – The U.S. is adjusting its tariff approach on key agricultural imports due to ongoing supply constraints and rising consumer prices. Beef costs have climbed as domestic cattle herds have declined, and recent tariffs briefly slowed the flow of Brazilian coffee, contributing to higher market prices. Products such as cocoa, frozen orange juice, nuts, and tropical fruits also remain difficult to source domestically, which has increased reliance on international suppliers.
By creating exemptions for these items, the US aims to support market stability, maintain consistent availability, and help prevent further price increases for goods that are either limited or not produced at scale within our country. These measures also come after many candidates from the Republican party lost several state and local races.
From Around the Watercooler
Walmart announced yesterday that longtime CEO Doug McMillon will retire at the end of January.
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry deregistered Scion Asset Management
PepsiCo is introducing “naked” versions of Doritos and Cheetos that strip out artificial dyes
SoftBank sold its Nvidia stake to fund OpenAI bet