S&P 500: 0.31% DOW: 0.50% NASDAQ: 0.91% 10-YR Yield: 4.14%
What Happened?
Markets rode a wave of mixed emotions but ultimately finished in the green, with all three major indexes posting modest gains. Even with the S&P 500 sustaining a four-day win streak, the Nasdaq led the charge, supported by continued strength in large-cap tech and AI-related names as investors rotated back into growth sectors following a solid earnings season. Strong balance sheets, resilient profit margins, and ongoing enthusiasm around AI-driven revenue opportunities helped lift the index ahead of its peers.
Not everything was smooth sailing. Crypto-linked equities stumbled after Bitcoin slid roughly 6%, and healthcare stocks weakened as regulatory-related rumors weighed on major vaccine makers. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield moved higher, even as expectations for additional rate cuts improved. That divergence, rising yields amid dovish hopes, remains a warning sign for stretched equity valuations and rate-sensitive borrowers.
Black Friday Sets New Online Spending Record With $11.8 Billion In Sales
- Customers leverage AI tools to search for the best deals; boosted AI-driven traffic to retailers by 805% year-on-year.
- Buy now, pay later constituted ~5% of total Black Friday shopping.
The key takeaway – The holiday shopping season kicked off with record-breaking online sales as Black Friday–Cyber Monday spending hit $14.7B, helped in part by AI-driven retail tools that boosted engagement and conversions. Despite consumer sentiment sitting near cycle lows, shoppers were pulled back in by aggressive promotions and increasingly sophisticated digital targeting. The early takeaway: even with questions swirling around the productivity payoff of massive corporate AI CapEx, AI is clearly influencing consumer behavior and supporting headline spending numbers.
Beneath the surface, however, the picture is less comforting. Buy Now, Pay Later usage surged to $747.5M, roughly 5% of total spending, raising flags about how “strong” the consumer really is if more purchases are being financed rather than paid for outright. While BNPL helps drive sales, it also increases household debt burdens and the risk of future delinquencies. Investors will be watching closely in the coming months to see whether holiday cheer reflects genuine consumer strength, or simply another case of kicking the can a little further down the road.
A first look at November hiring shows the private sector lost 32,000 jobs
- ADP November jobs data reported that the private market lost 32,000 jobs.
- Small businesses lost 120,000 but medium and large business added 51,000 & 39,000 respectively.
The key takeaway – Markets have snapped back to a classic “bad news is good news” regime, with investors cheering a weak ADP print that showed the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in November even as headlines framed it as the largest drop in more than two years. Under the surface, the story is more nuanced than “jobs are disappearing”: small businesses with fewer than 50 employees cut roughly 120,000 positions, while medium and large firms still added a combined 90,000 jobs, leaving the pain concentrated in rate‑sensitive, resource‑constrained employers rather than the corporate giants that dominate equity indices.
At the same time, weekly jobless claims fell to about 191,000, the lowest level since 2022, underscoring that layoffs remain muted even as hiring momentum cools and giving the Fed cover to argue the labor market is softening, not cracking. Rate futures now assign close to a 90% probability that the Fed delivers another 25 bp cut at this month’s meeting, its third in a row, with economists expecting policy easing to continue into early 2026, a path that has reinforced the “soft‑landing” narrative and helped keep risk assets well bid into year‑end despite the weaker small‑business data.
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