MARKET COMMENTARY
2026 is kicking off strong, with all three of our major indexes ending last week in the green. December’s job report was not as positive, with 2025 marking an extremely weak year in terms of jobs added. One positive development is that the Supreme Court is meeting to potentially make a decision on President Trump’s new global tariff policy, which, if struck down, could help revive the sluggish job market. With geopolitical events dominating the headlines, investors should also watch closely what the US government may decide to do regarding anti-government protesters in Iran.
New inflation data will be released both Tuesday and Wednesday, and a new earnings season begins with major banks being the ones to watch. Our first inflation reading will provide insight into the Consumer Price Index for December. Opinions on what to expect are fairly mixed, with some still concerned about distorted data as a consequence of the government shutdown. Forecasts suggest we should see a slight uptick that will likely carry forward into the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariff pressures. We will also receive November’s Producer Price Index, which serves as an early signal ahead of next week’s Personal Consumption Expenditure report, our most closely watched gauge of inflation and a key metric of what consumers are actually paying.
Looking closer at technical indicators, momentum is beginning to build across benchmark indexes. Our optimism remains high as market participation continues to broaden, reflected in the increased number of companies shifting towards earlier breakout stages. This suggests more stocks are gaining strength and presenting potential opportunities. Investor confidence is also improving, another signal of growing momentum.
Economic Releases This Week
Monday: None
Tuesday: Consumer Price Index
Wednesday: Retail Sales, Producer Price Index
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims
Friday: None
Stories to Start the Week
Federal Prosecutors Open Investigation into Fed Chair Powell
Banks oppose Trump’s campaign pledge of a one year, 10% cap on credit card interest rates
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says more sanctions on Venezuelacould be lifted as soon as next week to facilitate oil sales
Paramount sues Warner Bro’s in hostile takeover attempt
Trump threatens strong military action against Iran after hundreds of protesters have been killed since late December