Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

2018 Market Outlook

The return of broad-based global economic growth last year pushed the markets to new highs. This year we expect the markets to continue the climb upwards, but the path will be more volatile.

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February 26, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

The Fed expects to continue raising interest rates, a record number of S&P 500 companies issued positive EPS guidance, data suggests growing economic momentum but also rising prices, Warren Buffett offered his wit and wisdom in his annual letter, and thought leaders focused on the potential for rising rates to lead to rising debt servicing costs, why the economic expansion is poised to continue, and why momentum stocks still have room to run in 2018.

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October 9, 2017 – Weekly Market Commentary

The headline jobs numbers disappointed but underlying data was positive, the VIX hit a historic low, the House passed a budget resolution, and thought leaders focused on why tax reform is becoming increasingly important for the markets, investing opportunities driven by diverging monetary policies, and why wage growth and inflation may finally be hitting their stride.

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Q3 2017 Quarterly Review

The global economy continued to expand throughout Q3. The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) projected that all 45 countries that it tracks will expand in 2017. Through Q3 the MSCI All Country World Index posted positive returns for 11-straight months. The backdrop of stable macroeconomic data and limited volatility supported growth in equity markets. Foreign equities continued to outperform domestic equities. The Euro-area posted the highest returns, followed by emerging markets.

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August 28, 2017 – Weekly Market Commentary

North Korea launched a missile over Japan, Congress looks towards the debt ceiling, the ECB President sent the euro soaring, the world is growing in unison for the first time in 10-years, U.S. home sales disappointed, and thought leaders focused on why the debt ceiling matters and whether or not there is a bubble in the bond market.

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Q2 2017 Quarterly Review

U.S. stocks continued to gain despite some mixed economic data and amid political uncertainty over the ability of the US administration to push through its fiscally expansive
policies. Popular “Trump Trades” saw muted gains as investors became wary of delays in the administration’s policy timeline. Former FBI director James Comey’s testimony rattled
the markets but quickly became a non-event. The expected Fed rate hike had little effect on the markets, but the announcement of plans to reduce the balance sheet caused a
short-term pullback.

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Q1 2017 Quarterly Review

The markets carried over the feeling of exuberance from the end of the year into Q1. US investors remained confident in the Trump administration’s ability to put campaign promises into
action, sending economic sentiment climbing higher. Investors took the US Fed rate hike and comments from the voting committee in stride. Globally, economic data continued to improve
which supported gains in developed markets and outperformance in emerging markets. The demand for risk assets remained robust with equities outperforming fixed income by a significant
margin.

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Q4 2016 Quarterly Review

The U.S. presidential election and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its key interest rate were the highlights of Q4. Markets maintained a narrow trading range leading up to the
election and were sent on a tumultuous path as it became clear that Donald Trump would be the next President. After selling off to levels not seen since the Brexit vote, stocks recovered and
then continued to charge ahead through the end of the year. Higher interest rates, inflation expectations, and U.S. dollar took a toll on fixed income and bond-proxy sectors.

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December 12, 2016 – Weekly Market Commentary

Tom Fairless – The Wall Street JournalECB Extends but Scales Back Stimulus, Whipsawing MarketsSummary:The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a continuation of its quantitative easing program but will begin reducing purchases in April 2017. The current program was scheduled to end in March 2017 but will now extend until at least December of next year. ECB President Mario Draghi said that stimulus is still needed to help get the eurozone economy back on track. European stocks reacted positively to the announcement given that central bank purchases help keep rates low which is a tailwind for risk assets. 

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