January 29, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary


ECB Logo - Market Commentary

Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa – Reuters
ECB Hits Out at Washington for Talking Down the Dollar

Summary: European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi indicated displeasure at U.S. talks of a weakened dollar. Draghi claimed that such a move would be contrary to a decades-old pact not to target the currency and could lead to unwanted policy changes in Europe. The ECB’s current strategy of monetary ease could be threatened by a stronger Euro which would thwart inflation. In an effort to quell expectations of tightening, Draghi ultimately said a rise in interest rates is unlikely for 2018.


ECB Logo - Market Commentary

US Economic Growth Slows in Fourth-Quarter on Surging Imports

Summary: Fourth quarter figures showed the strongest pace of consumer spending in three years. This spending resulted in robust imports which detracted from GDP. Initial estimates of Q4 GDP showed a 2.6% increase in economic growth. That rate would put 2017 growth at 2.3%, up from 1.5% in 2016. Strong consumer spending numbers kept investors confident that the economy is poised for further growth in 2018.


Oil Rig - Market Commentary

Elena Mazneva, Wael Mahdi, Grant Smith, and Annmarie Horden – Bloomberg Markets
OPEC, Russia Signal Global Oil Alliance May Endure Past 2018

Summary: OPEC and Russia reaffirmed that they’ll maintain oil-production cuts until the end of 2018 in an attempt to clear a global glut. Energy ministers from both parties believe that demand will begin to balance supply growth in 2019.


Dollar Bill - Market Commentary

Sara Sjolin and Anneken Tappe – MarketWatch
Dollar Hits Fresh 3-Year Low After Mnuchin Cheers Weaker Greenback

Summary: Weakening of the dollar continued and the dollar hit a 3-year low against a global basket of currencies as US officials further indicated their preference for a weakened dollar with talks of trade benefits and negotiation leverage.


Bridgewater Logo - Market Commentary

Tae Kim – CNBC
Ray Dalio Says Market Surge Ahead

Summary: Bridgwater Associates founder Ray Dalio predicts a big market surge is upcoming. Dalio described the current state of markets as being in a “Goldilocks” period consisting of no inflationary problems, high growth, and upcoming stimulation from tax reform. According to Dalio, the only threat to markets is potential rate hikes from the Fed – the nature of which are still a bit uncertain.


Market Price Chart - Market Commentary

Diana Britton – Wealthmanagement.com
We’re Not in a Bubble

Summary: Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor of Allianz, recently told attendees at the Inside ETFs conference that the markets are not in a bubble. El-Erian believes that we are going to see geopolitics drive an increase in market volatility this year. Additionally, El-Erian expects market sell-offs to be deeper because monetary policy will not be there to act as a backstop for the markets. 


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Liz Ann Sonders, Jeffrey Kleintop, and Brad Sorensen – Charles Schwab
Melt-up! Now What?

Summary: US stocks have accelerated in the first month of the year as the bull market carries into the new year. Economic growth continues to be strong and no recession appears to be on the horizon. Janet Yellen’s final Fed meeting is expected to result in talks of inflation becoming a bigger concern due to the tighter labor market and tax-related fiscal stimulus. The bull market is expected to continue running with the caveat of increased volatility.





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