Market Commentaries

Weekly Market Commentary

Jeffry Bartash – MarketWatchConsumer Inflation Hits 6-Year HighSummary: Consumer prices rose at the highest rate since 2012 gaining 2.9% over the past year. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose at 2.3%, the highest level since the Great Recession. Rising prices have essentially wiped out the modest wage gains many workers have seen over the same time period. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

Jeff Cox – CNBCJune Jobs Report Beats ExpectationsSummary: The US added 213,000 jobs in June and more people returned to the job market. The data beat expectations and signalled strength in the labor market. Wage growth was subdued, which could keep inflation low and allow the Fed to keep interest rates lower for longer. Stocks rose on the news. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

BBC NewsEU Tariffs on US Goods Come Into ForceSummary: The EU officially imposed more than $3 billion in tariffs on US products such as bourbon whiskey, motorcycles and orange juice. EU President Jean-Claude Juncker said the measures will rebalance and safeguard the EU. It is unclear how tariffs imposed by both countries will influence consumers, but the initial belief is that it will increase costs. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

Jeff Cox – CNBCFed Hikes Rates, Points to Two More Increases This YearSummary: The Fed raised its benchmark short-term interest rate from 1.75% to 2% and indicated that it plans to raise rates twice more this year. The Fed’s statement was unusually short and showed that committee members are more optimistic that economic growth is “solid” and that strong labor market conditions and rising inflation will support further rate hikes this year. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

John Fritze – USA TodayUS Won’t Endorse G-7 Joint StatementSummary: President Trump instructed US officials not to endorse a joint statement with G-7 world leaders. His instruction was billed as a response to comments made by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who said that Canada would be moving forward with retaliatory tariffs against the US. The move further complicates diplomacy and trade talks between the US and its allies.

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Weekly Market Commentary

Jeremy Diamond and Julia Horowitz – CNN MoneyTrump Hits Allies With Metal TariffsSummary: President Trump imposed metals tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the European Union after letting exemptions for the ally countries expire. All of the trading partners have vowed to retaliate with their own tariffs against the US. The move will complicate ongoing negotiations on NAFTA and further entrenches the US in an ongoing trade spat with its largest trading partners. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

Gregory Korte – USA TodayTrump Calls for New Tariffs, Escalating Trade WarsSummary: In a surprise announcement, President Trump called for new tariffs on imported cars, trucks, and auto parts. The announcement was likely linked to deteriorating talks between Mexico, the US, and Canada regarding NAFTA. The Trump administration has been pushing for new rules that require vehicles to be manufactured in the US to qualify for tariff-free trade. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

Amanda Cooper – ReutersIEA Warns High Crude Prices May Stifle DemandSummary: Global demand for oil is likely to moderate this year as prices near $80 per barrel. Prices have risen more than 50% over the past year, and importer subsidies in many emerging economies are expected to be reduced or cut this year. Demand could also be moderated by Supply constraints due to geopolitical developments which are likely to keep prices higher over the short-term.

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May 14, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, oil prices hit their highest level since 2014, tame inflation boosted stocks, President Trump and Kim Jong Un set a place and date for their upcoming meeting, and thought leaders focused on the burden of high earnings expectations, why investors shouldn’t abandon emerging markets, and why watching the consumer price index is more important than yield curve flattening.

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May 7, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

The Fed left rates unchanged, employment data missed expectations, European growth slowed the most in over a year, and thought leaders focused on the breakdown of a common stock and bond relationship, what has been driving the quiet commodity rally, and why soaring earnings haven’t been able to keep the market charge going.

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April 30, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

A historic meeting between Korean leaders, the Bank of Japan removes its inflation target goal, Q1 GDP came in above expectations, and thought leaders focused on the potential for a historic earnings season, why external selling pressures may be fading, and why the probability of blockbuster equity returns will decline in coming years.

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April 23, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

The yield curve flattened further, oil supply and demand move closer to normalizing, Trump named two more Fed officials, and thought leaders focused on improving S&P 500 profit margins, why a flatter yield curve may not spell disaster for this year and the risks and rewards of different Fed strategies late in the economic cycle.

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