Posts by Trey Graham

Weekly Market Commentary

The New York TimesWhat Is a Stock Market Correction?Summary: A stock market correction is a 10% drop from a recent peak in the price of the stock market. A decline of this magnitude does not always mean that stocks are going to fall further. In fact, only two of the last twenty corrections ended up becoming bear markets, a decline of 20% or more from a recent peak. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

Jeff Cox – CNBCFed Leaves Rates Unchanged but Gives More Aggressive Inflation ExpectationsSummary: Janet Yellen’s last meeting as chairman of the Federal Reserve resulted in no change of current policy.  FOMC members indicated that they expect inflationary pressures to increase as the year moves on and current expectations of rate three hikes in 2018 remain probable. Jerome Powell will be replacing Janet Yellen as chairman. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa – ReutersECB Hits Out at Washington for Talking Down the DollarSummary: European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi indicated displeasure at U.S. talks of a weakened dollar. Draghi claimed that such a move would be contrary to a decades-old pact not to target the currency and could lead to unwanted policy changes in Europe. The ECB’s current strategy of monetary ease could be threatened by a stronger Euro which would thwart inflation. In an effort to quell expectations of tightening, Draghi ultimately said a rise in interest rates is unlikely for 2018.

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January 22, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

The US government passed a short-term spending bill to end a government shutdown, the Bank of Canada raised rates, what happens to the stock market when the government shuts down, and thought leaders focused on the potential for a flood of fixed income supply to derail the bull market, why oil and gas companies are poised for a rebound, and why monetary tightening and inflation are major headwinds for the bond market.

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January 15, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

Options trading indicates investors are expecting further market gains, the UK could lose 500,000 jobs due to the Brexit, wage growth is still lagging the rest of the economic recovery, and thought leaders focused on the potential for the S&P to post negative returns in 2018, the start of a treasury bear market, and why the next move higher in stocks is likely to be more volatile than investors expect.

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January 8, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

The Fed expects tax cuts to boost GDP, stocks had their best start to the year since 1999, analysts cut Q4 EPS estimates by the smallest margins since 2010, Congress restarted federal budget negotiations, and thought leaders focused on why global growth may peak in 2018, and why low volatility in the stock market may be explained by lower volatility in the bond markets.

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January 2, 2018 – Weekly Market Commentary

US consumer confidence remained near 17 year highs heading into 2018, US crude oil prices closed above $60 for the first time in over 2 years, analysts are expecting a big year for S&P 500 earnings growth and profit margin, and thought leaders focused on economic problems the tax bill doesn’t solve and why the economy should continue its upward trajectory next year.

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December 18, 2017 – Weekly Market Commentary

The Fed raised rates, the final version of the tax reform bill was released, US consumers crushed spending expectations, the F.C.C. repealed rules governing internet traffic, and thought leaders focused on why a flat yield curve matters, and why tax reform and valuations are supporting the current bull market.

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Weekly Market Commentary

Kathryn Watson – CBS NewsSenate Passes Sweeping Tax Overhaul in Early Morning VoteSummary: The Senate passed tax reform legislation with no Democratic support. The bill was approved 51-49 with only one Republican voting ‘no’. The bill permanently lowers the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. Tax rates will also be cut for individuals, but the cuts will expire in 10 years. 

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